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Authored By: Adrian Rosati

Two more years of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together in Edmonton are slowly shaping up to be two final runs at the Stanley Cup. The Edmonton Oilers are coming off a first-round exit to the Anaheim Ducks, and the question now becomes: Can Edmonton return to the form they showed in the two years prior, when they made the Stanley Cup Finals? Can they finally win the Stanley Cup?

Whether or not they can, this is a pivotal year, especially with McDavid entering the final year of his contract next season.

Major Additions and Subtractions

Additions:

• G Fredrik Andersen — Signed in free agency
• G Devon Levi — Acquired in a trade with Buffalo
• D Shakir Mukhamadullin — Acquired in a trade with San Jose

Subtractions:

• D Darnell Nurse — Traded to San Jose
• G Calvin Pickard — Left in free agency
• F Jack Roslovic — Left in free agency

Evaluation of the Offseason

It’s clear that, like the hardcore fans, Stan Bowman realized they needed to address goaltending immediately. It looks like, however, they weren’t in the Connor Hellebuyck sweepstakes, as Hellebuyck reportedly wants to play in the U.S. with his next team. Instead, Edmonton acquired two wildcards to accompany Tristan Jarry.

Fredrik Andersen is coming off a Stanley Cup victory last year. He was abysmal in the regular season, posting a 3.05 GAA and an .874 save percentage. In the playoffs, though, he turned it on with a 1.89 GAA and a .910 save percentage, which are significantly better numbers.

In the Stanley Cup Final, however, he was unable to finish the series due to injury. He returned to full health and then got injured during an offseason workout, which will hold him out for the first month of the season. This means he likely won’t be on the roster until November.

Andersen is probably good for a maximum of 20–30 games next year, highlighting what could be a three-man rotation in Edmonton’s crease.

For Devon Levi, we have yet to see him find consistent success at the NHL level. Levi played all of last season in Rochester (AHL), where he put up decent but slightly above-average numbers with a 2.83 GAA and a .904 save percentage.

In the NHL over his career, he has a 3.31 GAA and an .894 save percentage. Levi, once touted as a standout goaltending prospect, has delivered below-average numbers while seemingly regressing as time goes on.

Levi is still only 24, and with goalies, they sometimes take longer than expected to develop. The hope is that, in his limited NHL opportunities, a change of scenery can help him find his game. After this year, he will become an RFA, so Edmonton could extract some value if he has a career year. I think he will play maybe 15 games at most, depending on Andersen’s return and whether there are any setbacks.

On the back end, Mukhamadullin brings some intrigue. The 24-year-old defenseman put up 12 points in 50 games last season. He missed some games in December with an upper-body injury and was also a healthy scratch at times.

Mukhamadullin plays on the right side and is currently slated to play on the third pairing with Ryan Shea. The goal may be to develop him into a solid second-pairing defenseman, especially if Edmonton eventually decides they don’t want to pay Evan Bouchard to remain behind Connor Murphy.

Playing behind elite defensemen should be good for his development, and he wasn’t going to get much of an opportunity in San Jose.

The big thing for Edmonton, though, was dumping the salary of Darnell Nurse.

Nurse is a good defenseman who, before this offseason, was slightly overpaid due to his occasional defensive lapses. As time goes on, though, that contract could actually look like a steal. With Edmonton paying Bouchard more money, there was no way they could continue with $19.75 million tied up on their top pairing.

Nurse, now 31, is five years older than Bouchard. As that contract continues to age, it could have become increasingly difficult for Edmonton to move him. Otherwise, they may have eventually been forced to trade Bouchard simply to create the necessary cap space.

Up front, Roslovic is a 20-goal scorer that Edmonton will have to play without this year. Roslovic was an unfortunate cap casualty after signing for $4 million per year in Toronto.

Edmonton only has $1.9 million in cap space, so I feel that was the only reason they let him go. His production is not bad for a depth scorer, and they may miss those goals this season.

That said, their top end is so stacked that I’m not too worried about how they’ll handle the regular season. When depth scoring becomes more prominent in the playoffs, however, the moves made so far could become an issue.

Bowman’s plan is looking more and more like a magic bag of beans. He addressed the net somewhat, but it’s completely up in the air whether it will actually work.

That said, holding firm up front, dumping Nurse’s contract, and getting younger with Mukhamadullin were all good moves. It was unlikely that Edmonton would be able to dump that much salary and get such a good young player in return, but Bowman managed to pull it off.

First 10 Games

The Oilers open their season on September 29th at 10:00 p.m. ET against the Vancouver Canucks.

Their first 10 games include six divisional opponents, three Central Division opponents, and only one Eastern Conference opponent. Playing the Canucks twice to start the season in a home-and-home is a gift. And then the Kraken right after? What a solid first three-game stretch.

The rest of the games are against teams either in the playoff hunt or bonafide playoff contenders. Their only Eastern Conference opponent is Carolina, which could be tricky, as the defending champions are arguably the best team in the East.

An even split of five home games and five road games is a good starting point. There’s no major travel disadvantage, nor is there an overwhelming advantage from playing at home.

I expect them to start 6-4 through their first 10 games.

Playing San Jose, Utah twice, Minnesota, and Carolina will be tough. I’m sure they’ll split with Utah and steal one against either the Hurricanes or Wild, but it could be tough sledding.

The Oilers started last season 4-4-2, so even if that 6-4 prediction ends up reverting with a few more losses, I’m pretty confident they can still muscle their way into the playoff hunt.

My Prediction?

My prediction is that the Oilers will finish 3rd in the Pacific Division this season.

The Oilers should be okay, but I expect them to regress somewhat with the teams around them getting better. They could easily outperform this prediction. The Pacific is so mid that it could be anyone’s division to win.

At the same time, though, the goaltending situation is filled with enough wildcards that this could get really bad, really fast.

The proof is probably somewhere in the middle. McDavid is going to propel them into a playoff spot, that much I’m sure of.