Photo Credits: Jenn G. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.

Authored By: Adrian Rosati

The Dallas Stars are looking to have a better year than last season after a disappointing first-round exit against a talented Minnesota Wild team. They currently don’t have to worry about Jason Robertson, as he shockingly turned down $15 million per year in a potential trade-and-extension with Seattle for a 1-year, $12 million per year deal. This will directly result in him walking to unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2027.

The Dallas Stars are in a stacked division. There is no doubt about it, but they have established themselves as a stalwart in the playoff picture. They currently sit $1.3 million over the salary cap. For those who may not know, NHL teams can be over the salary cap during the offseason up until the first game of the year. That means the deadline for a final move is approaching.

The reason they are over the salary cap is partially due to Jason Robertson and $2.08 million in performance bonuses. These performance bonuses stem from players achieving bonuses last year and count against this years salary cap. The sticky situation with Robertson was partially about avoiding this issue heading into the year.

Major Moves This Offseason

Additions:

• F Joel Kiviranta — Signed via Free Agency

Subtractions:

• F Mavrik Bourque — Traded to Nashville
• D Ilya Lyubushkin — Traded to Nashville
• F Michael Bunting — Left as a Free Agent
• F Nathan Bastian — Left as a Free Agent

Evaluation of the Offseason

There is not much to say about the offseason of Jim Nill. This was coming for the past two years as we saw the salary cap rising the way it was, while also having to deal with RFA Jason Robertson. To maintain the current team they have and keep the key pieces around him, this was their best shot. As much as Robertson could leave for nothing, I think they won by keeping him rather than finding a trade partner.

They did lose some depth scoring in both Bunting and Bourque. Bunting has been struggling with injuries, and with the cap situation, he was an easy choice to part ways with. He only had two points in 13 games last year. While I think he could return to 25–40 points when fully healthy, it’s not a major loss. A 31-year-old Michael Bunting is not worth a $4.5–$6 million cap hit for a team as top-heavy as Dallas, but I’m sure he may get somewhere near that on the open market. Dallas will lose a bit of a physical edge by losing him.

Bourque is a lot more of a loss in my opinion. Not because of what he could produce next year, but because of what he could produce going forward. The 24-year-old winger secured a solid payday in Nashville and could be a part of their transition there. The trading of Bourque was a signal that likely indicated Robertson would return.

Kiviranta is set to replace some of that scoring. A known commodity from his first four years of his career, he returns to Dallas hoping to make an impact similar to two years ago with Colorado, when he put up 23 points.

Overall, these were minor moves. Solid A for Jim Nill.

The saying is, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

First 10 Games

Dallas opens its season at home against St. Louis at 9:00 p.m. ET. The Stars will face an improved Blues team, but this should be a good momentum-builder against a relatively easier divisional opponent.

That starts a theme of five more divisional games, including a home-and-home with Colorado toward the end of that stretch. The other three divisional games are against teams on the outside looking in. If they can lock in from the jump, it could be huge for divisional tiebreakers if they are needed down the stretch.

I slate them for 4–5 wins in these six games. I don’t think they’ll beat Colorado in both games of that home-and-home.

Their other Western Conference game is against the San Jose Sharks. Look, not to spoil my Sharks preview in a few weeks, but San Jose is going to be a strong team this year that should make a deep playoff run.

Coming out of the first two potential divisional wins, I think this is the first real test for Dallas to see if they have it or if they don’t. This game could be pivotal in determining how they manage roster decisions at the trade deadline. If they can’t keep it close, that may be an indicator of whether they should try to extend Robertson when he becomes eligible to sign an extension on January 1, 2027.

The remaining games are all against Eastern Conference divisional opponents: Buffalo, Boston and Pittsburgh.

I think they probably beat all three of them as well. Interconference games are hard to gauge because the teams only play twice a year, but I think the Stars are just too good to lose these games.

Buffalo, a shell of itself without Tuch, Boston with just Peterka could pose a bit of a challenge, and a Penguins team that lucked into a playoff spot last year rounds out the group.

That means I have Dallas starting 8–2 on the low end.

Is that too bullish? Maybe. Early hockey is hard to predict. Dallas could come out a little rusty and lose a few more games, sure. But if you think Dallas will not have a good year this year, you may just need to watch more Stars games.

Prediction

I know this is a “hot take,” but I have Dallas finishing second in the Central.

I know I have been pretty safe in terms of the Central so far, but there are literally no major changes that make me think there will be much change in the division. Sure, Minnesota could ascend and take over the second spot in their place, but I don’t think that’s likely.

Dallas is a team that has shown it can beat Minnesota in the past, even thoough they lost to them in the first round in six games last year. Dallas has proved they are consistently in the hunt for the top spot in the league. So much so that they have finished in the top five in the league for three consecutive seasons.

If Dallas doesn’t win the Stanley Cup this year, they may not win it with this current core. I think this may be their best shot to do so.