Authored By: Adrian Rosati

Photo Credits: Sewageboy. From the Anaheim Ducks training camp scrimmage on July 5, 2024, at the Great Park Ice in Irvine. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.

As if this offseason’s headaches couldn’t keep piling up for Anaheim Ducks General Manager Pat Verbeek, there is still one glaring hole on the team’s PuckPedia page: Cutter Gauthier.

After matching Leo Carlsson’s five-year, $18 million AAV offer sheet and getting ahead of another potential offer sheet by signing Pavel Mintyukov to a five-year contract worth $7.2 million annually, the Ducks have just $9 million in cap space remaining.

With contract inflation running wild and offer sheets becoming more common, the question remains: What does a realistic contract look like for Cutter Gauthier?

One thing is clear: Gauthier’s camp is likely seeking somewhere in the $16-18 million per year range after seeing the Carlsson contract. Of course they’re going to aim high, but unfortunately for Kurt Overhardt and company, that contract simply isn’t a fair comparable.

The reason is simple: offer sheets are inflationary by nature. Teams don’t submit offer sheets because they represent market value—they submit them because they hope the original team won’t match. If you want to pry away a young star, you have to offer well above market value. Offering a player his fair value accomplishes nothing because he can simply decline it.

To the surprise of Daniel Brière and the Flyers’ front office, Verbeek matched anyway.

To Gauthier’s credit, though, I still believe he’s in line for a significant payday.

The 22-year-old winger is coming off a season in which he scored 41 goals and 28 assists for 69 points in 76 games. Forty-goal scorers don’t grow on trees, and players with that type of goal-scoring ability generally continue to improve at his age. Playing alongside Leo Carlsson on the top line certainly helped, but it’s also fair to argue that Gauthier’s finishing ability positively impacted Carlsson’s production as well.

Here are three comparable contracts and why they do—or don’t—fit.

Wyatt Johnston — Dallas Stars

5 years x $8.4 million AAV

Wyatt Johnston may want to reconsider who negotiated his contract.

Like Gauthier, Johnston is only 23 years old and is coming off his first 40-goal season, finishing with 45 goals and 41 assists for 86 points in 82 games, eclipsing the point-per-game mark.

However, there are two major reasons why this isn’t a perfect comparison.

First, Johnston is a center, and centers generally command higher salaries because of their greater defensive responsibilities.

Second—and perhaps more importantly—Texas has no state income tax. An $8.4 million salary in Dallas carries significantly more after-tax value than it does in California. To earn roughly the same take-home pay in Anaheim, Gauthier would need to make approximately $16.8-17.5 million per season.

Matt Boldy — Minnesota Wild

7 years x $7 million AAV

Matt Boldy is arguably a better comparable.

Like Gauthier, Boldy is a winger and recently posted his first 40-goal season, finishing with 42 goals, 43 assists, and 85 points. Comparing two left wingers makes more sense from a positional standpoint.

The challenge is that Boldy produced at essentially a point-per-game pace, demonstrating more offensive production than Gauthier has shown to this point.

In Gauthier’s defense, his centerman—the newly minted $18 million man, Leo Carlsson—missed significant time due to injury, forcing him to spend stretches playing alongside an aging Chris Kreider. That undoubtedly could have impacted his point totals.

Another factor is timing. Boldy’s contract was signed two years ago under a much lower salary cap, making it less representative of today’s market.

Adjusted for California taxes, a contract with similar after-tax value would come in around $7.6 million annually, which feels well below Gauthier’s current market value.

Alex DeBrincat — Detroit Red Wings

4 years x $7.875 million AAV

Alex DeBrincat rounds out the list.

He recorded 41 goals and 44 assists for 85 points this season, marking the third 40-goal campaign of his career. While DeBrincat is now 28 years old, this contract was signed when he was 24—only slightly older than Gauthier is today.

Again, though, there are differences.

DeBrincat has already established himself as a consistent point-per-game player and has proven his production over multiple seasons. Gauthier, while extremely talented, has only one elite goal-scoring season under his belt and also missed five games this year.

Because Michigan’s tax burden is lower than California’s, DeBrincat’s contract would equate to approximately $8.4-8.6 million annually if signed by the Ducks.

The Verdict

I expect Gauthier to sign a three-year contract worth approximately $13 million annually.

While that number is substantially higher than most traditional comparables, the current RFA market has become heavily distorted by offer sheets and rapidly increasing salary cap projections.

The biggest obstacle isn’t whether Gauthier deserves the money—it’s whether Anaheim can fit it under the cap.

Such a deal likely becomes possible only if Troy Terry is placed on LTIR. Alternatively, the Ducks could move Ville Husso’s contract while assigning a few fringe players with two-way eligibility to the AHL, potentially creating close to $4 million in additional cap space. From there, some creative cap management could make the numbers work.

As much as I dreamed of becoming an NHL general manager growing up, I certainly don’t envy the position Pat Verbeek finds himself in today.